Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -14.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +10 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -6.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -5.8 (+4.2) | 133.6 (-11.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -3.5 (+6.5) | 130.9 (-8.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -3.9 (+6.1) | 131.8 (-9.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -4.3 (+5.7) | 130.3 (-8.3) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 6-3 |
| Away | 9-5 | 5-15 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 60.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 65.4 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#210) | -3.6 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#278) | 0.49 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#241) | 0.69 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#226) | 0.563 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 16.8% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 13.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.3% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 83.3% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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