Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +8 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -5.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -5.2 (+2.8) | 139.7 (+4.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -3.6 (+4.4) | 141.0 (+3.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -5.7 (+2.3) | 143.0 (+1.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -5.7 (+2.3) | 142.2 (+1.8) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2022 | BEL 83 – 79 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 10-5 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 65.4 |
| Massey | 10.7 (#35) | 10.1 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#33) | 2.52 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#34) | 3.20 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.645 (#19) | 0.612 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 41.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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