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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
25–13 on winners
spread MAE 9.2
38 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+3.5 | 129.2 | 65% | 58–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.1 | 144.0 | 36% | 85–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.3 | 138.7 | 47% | 61–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.8 | 141.4 | 63% | 76–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 143.9 | 64% | 73–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 130.0 | 49% | 69–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 141.1 | 56% | 72–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.4 | 135.2 | 72% | 56–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 129.8 | 69% | 78–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.8 | 135.6 | 59% | 83–80 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.8 | 153.6 | 45% | 60–82 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.5 | 138.7 | 47% | 60–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.4 | 128.0 | 74% | 49–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 130.7 | 74% | 69–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 130.4 | 49% | 56–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 145.6 | 67% | 80–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.6 | 141.6 | 65% | 60–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.5 | 151.0 | 50% | 76–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.4 | 150.1 | 65% | 89–88 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.5 | 139.6 | 64% | 87–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.9 | 153.1 | 73% | 59–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 143.5 | 42% | 72–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 146.1 | 64% | 59–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 151.8 | 77% | 60–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.5 | 158.7 | 76% | 61–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.2 | 134.0 | 69% | 66–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.8 | 144.6 | 50% | 64–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.6 | 140.7 | 64% | 78–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 151.9 | 69% | 70–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.2 | 135.1 | 80% | 48–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 139.9 | 54% | 77–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.1 | 130.5 | 65% | 68–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 138.7 | 64% | 75–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.1 | 133.6 | 74% | 61–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.5 | 157.0 | 77% | 54–94 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.0 | 139.3 | 46% | 76–56 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 136.2 | 48% | 57–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.4 | 153.8 | 55% | 51–65 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.