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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–3 on winners
spread MAE 11.5
12 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kent State
@
Toledo
|
-1.7 | 154.0 | 44% | 93–78 | ✓ |
Marist
@
Iona
|
+13.1 | 140.9 | 87% | 55–76 | ✓ |
Duke
@
Virginia
|
-1.3 | 125.8 | 43% | 59–49 | ✓ |
UAB
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+2.3 | 151.1 | 61% | 56–78 | ✓ |
Cal State Fullerton
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+0.6 | 139.3 | 55% | 62–72 | ✓ |
Arizona
@
UCLA
|
+2.8 | 146.9 | 63% | 61–59 | ✗ |
Grand Canyon
@
Southern Utah
|
-0.1 | 151.2 | 48% | 84–66 | ✓ |
Princeton
@
Yale
|
+4.6 | 143.1 | 65% | 74–65 | ✗ |
Texas A&M
@
Alabama
|
+6.8 | 142.3 | 73% | 63–82 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
VCU
|
+0.8 | 130.2 | 57% | 56–68 | ✓ |
Memphis
@
Houston
|
+6.7 | 133.8 | 68% | 75–65 | ✗ |
Penn State
@
Purdue
|
+5.1 | 134.3 | 70% | 65–67 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.