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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
31–9 on winners
spread MAE 9.3
40 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+15.4 | 139.8 | 86% | 53–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.2 | 138.5 | 84% | 53–54 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 137.3 | 53% | 69–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.1 | 142.8 | 77% | 76–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.2 | 140.5 | 89% | 55–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 138.5 | 61% | 82–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.8 | 135.1 | 84% | 64–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.9 | 132.1 | 78% | 65–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 153.6 | 58% | 67–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 135.5 | 55% | 64–54 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.6 | 133.9 | 86% | 71–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 141.0 | 62% | 60–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.8 | 143.7 | 87% | 68–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 139.8 | 59% | 66–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.8 | 143.5 | 82% | 58–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.5 | 134.2 | 82% | 69–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.4 | 136.3 | 28% | 68–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.8 | 136.2 | 86% | 50–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+32.4 | 167.8 | 91% | 78–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 139.8 | 70% | 65–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.5 | 159.4 | 81% | 55–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 146.3 | 77% | 62–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 130.3 | 50% | 74–49 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.2 | 130.8 | 74% | 82–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-11.9 | 135.9 | 15% | 74–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 144.9 | 67% | 70–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+25.0 | 153.8 | 91% | 63–87 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.8 | 144.8 | 45% | 70–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 138.3 | 60% | 81–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.5 | 158.5 | 71% | 61–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.6 | 133.6 | 65% | 77–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.3 | 140.9 | 79% | 65–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.6 | 129.2 | 59% | 71–56 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.9 | 144.1 | 68% | 68–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+32.1 | 137.7 | 91% | 60–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.3 | 138.6 | 89% | 52–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.4 | 151.9 | 86% | 67–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 143.8 | 66% | 79–51 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.2 | 145.5 | 44% | 64–70 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.9 | 155.8 | 51% | 98–81 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.