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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
25–13 on winners
spread MAE 10.3
40 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+11.3 | 129.0 | 81% | 38–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.7 | 155.6 | 85% | 65–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 131.9 | 74% | 60–65 | ✓ |
|
|
— | — | — | 96–88 | — |
|
|
+4.3 | 148.3 | 71% | 63–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 139.1 | 64% | 69–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.7 | 141.6 | 85% | 63–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.5 | 131.3 | 74% | 63–52 | ✗ |
|
|
+28.4 | 137.7 | 91% | 52–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.2 | 134.1 | 32% | 69–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.5 | 149.4 | 90% | 57–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.0 | 151.9 | 86% | 68–93 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.4 | 149.3 | 86% | 67–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 146.3 | 62% | 63–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.9 | 140.7 | 85% | 52–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.0 | 139.7 | 89% | 58–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.0 | 137.4 | 74% | 63–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+25.7 | 138.2 | 91% | 56–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 127.5 | 61% | 66–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.6 | 131.4 | 84% | 46–51 | ✓ |
|
|
+24.1 | 151.6 | 90% | 59–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 154.7 | 83% | 61–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 144.0 | 74% | 76–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.0 | 147.0 | 73% | 80–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 140.2 | 67% | 74–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.5 | 135.2 | 84% | 75–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 136.9 | 53% | 85–66 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.0 | 159.1 | 50% | 59–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.4 | 142.1 | 59% | 78–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+24.3 | 151.4 | 90% | 56–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 144.7 | 70% | 56–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.5 | 147.2 | 89% | 62–74 | ✓ |
|
|
— | — | — | 75–55 | — |
|
|
+11.4 | 145.8 | 87% | 61–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+25.3 | 132.9 | 91% | 49–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 135.6 | 55% | 70–55 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.3 | 150.6 | 67% | 75–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.5 | 161.5 | 60% | 81–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.9 | 147.0 | 76% | 96–87 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.9 | 144.4 | 55% | 70–61 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.