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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–10 on winners
spread MAE 10.5
26 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Butler
@
Villanova
|
+19.1 | 140.8 | 89% | 66–85 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Purdue
|
+2.1 | 142.5 | 67% | 60–67 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Cincinnati
|
+5.4 | 134.6 | 70% | 74–71 | ✗ |
Florida International
@
Florida Gulf Coast
|
+2.8 | 144.8 | 62% | 85–69 | ✗ |
Central Arkansas
@
Mississippi State
|
+8.6 | 150.2 | 82% | 65–81 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
UL Monroe
|
+5.1 | 131.3 | 70% | 78–61 | ✗ |
UNC Asheville
@
Chattanooga
|
+13.3 | 144.7 | 86% | 66–69 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Oklahoma State
|
+6.9 | 135.8 | 70% | 77–76 | ✗ |
Samford
@
Troy
|
-5.9 | 138.8 | 36% | 71–79 | ✗ |
Kennesaw State
@
Belmont
|
+16.6 | 141.0 | 88% | 53–64 | ✓ |
Southern
@
UAB
|
+24.7 | 145.3 | 90% | 46–88 | ✓ |
Sam Houston
@
Texas
|
+27.0 | 143.1 | 91% | 63–79 | ✓ |
Oral Roberts
@
Oklahoma
|
+17.1 | 163.4 | 88% | 65–79 | ✓ |
East Carolina
@
SMU
|
+8.4 | 147.6 | 75% | 55–70 | ✓ |
Ole Miss
@
Middle Tennessee
|
-8.0 | 126.5 | 26% | 70–51 | ✓ |
Tennessee Tech
@
Jacksonville State
|
+8.6 | 133.8 | 77% | 50–74 | ✓ |
Duke
@
Notre Dame
|
+3.7 | 147.8 | 69% | 75–65 | ✗ |
UTEP
@
Arizona State
|
+8.7 | 146.5 | 73% | 76–63 | ✗ |
Memphis
@
Tulane
|
-4.0 | 130.9 | 26% | 80–74 | ✓ |
Northern Colorado
@
Denver
|
+0.1 | 138.0 | 53% | 83–75 | ✗ |
Montana
@
Washington
|
+3.2 | 127.1 | 54% | 66–58 | ✗ |
North Dakota
@
Southern Illinois
|
+10.9 | 142.0 | 80% | 64–85 | ✓ |
Wagner
@
Bryant
|
+13.3 | 143.8 | 86% | 75–81 | ✓ |
Long Island University
@
Sacred Heart
|
-8.6 | 136.7 | 40% | 72–87 | ✗ |
Delaware State
@
Coastal Carolina
|
+22.7 | 155.8 | 90% | 73–99 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Drexel
|
+12.1 | 146.6 | 86% | 77–81 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.