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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
13–9 on winners
spread MAE 8.7
23 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+10.4 | 135.6 | 75% | 58–57 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.0 | 163.7 | 47% | 94–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 149.9 | 70% | 69–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 148.8 | 79% | 64–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.8 | 143.2 | 89% | 55–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.0 | 131.5 | 90% | 60–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.4 | 144.7 | 86% | 48–51 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.1 | 149.0 | 86% | 78–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.5 | 148.9 | 79% | 78–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 144.5 | 56% | 70–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.2 | 140.0 | 57% | 77–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.7 | 140.5 | 50% | 61–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.6 | 142.5 | 85% | 50–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.8 | 126.4 | 76% | 51–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.6 | 143.3 | 62% | 80–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.8 | 132.3 | 73% | 72–62 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.8 | 151.7 | 32% | 76–81 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.0 | 150.7 | 51% | 76–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.6 | 148.2 | 46% | 75–73 | ✗ |
|
|
— | — | — | 85–65 | — |
|
|
-5.3 | 145.6 | 32% | 75–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.3 | 137.5 | 88% | 56–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 134.4 | 47% | 69–65 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.