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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
37–9 on winners
spread MAE 5.9
46 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+3.4 | 140.7 | 70% | 76–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.9 | 143.3 | 89% | 63–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 137.6 | 68% | 62–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 156.6 | 43% | 97–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.4 | 134.3 | 80% | 56–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.5 | 141.8 | 87% | 57–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 144.1 | 72% | 66–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.3 | 130.2 | 87% | 55–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 146.7 | 63% | 81–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.1 | 157.8 | 84% | 94–98 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.5 | 151.6 | 83% | 53–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 149.9 | 58% | 91–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.5 | 146.3 | 84% | 75–98 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.2 | 148.5 | 29% | 86–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.1 | 155.3 | 84% | 67–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 130.1 | 63% | 59–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+21.8 | 144.2 | 91% | 70–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.2 | 148.3 | 87% | 57–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 142.7 | 67% | 59–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.1 | 151.3 | 60% | 92–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 140.6 | 70% | 68–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 149.9 | 64% | 80–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.7 | 159.3 | 48% | 85–90 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.2 | 140.2 | 48% | 84–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 139.7 | 69% | 75–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.8 | 141.1 | 76% | 63–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 145.0 | 50% | 89–87 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.0 | 145.8 | 33% | 68–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.2 | 150.6 | 86% | 52–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.5 | 146.7 | 83% | 59–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.7 | 129.6 | 90% | 68–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 142.5 | 64% | 94–89 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.0 | 148.1 | 80% | 75–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.1 | 143.2 | 83% | 81–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 131.6 | 51% | 62–52 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.1 | 153.3 | 57% | 91–90 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.5 | 145.3 | 52% | 65–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.6 | 167.3 | 81% | 94–106 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.7 | 143.5 | 85% | 66–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 137.6 | 51% | 77–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.9 | 141.7 | 76% | 74–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.6 | 137.9 | 85% | 73–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 145.9 | 71% | 75–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.0 | 144.8 | 86% | 81–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.3 | 143.3 | 83% | 70–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 157.7 | 59% | 73–85 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.