And with the way you look I understand you're not impressed. "Alison" - Elvis Costello
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–8 on winners spread MAE 6.8 39 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
North Carolina Central @ Delaware State +0.6 153.2 55% 79–77 ✗
Alcorn State @ Bethune-Cookman +2.5 132.2 64% 60–69 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Marist -0.3 128.9 42% 62–58 ✓
USC @ Purdue +9.7 149.3 82% 71–76 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Middle Tennessee +0.8 139.8 56% 75–77 ✓
Seattle U @ Abilene Christian -4.8 133.0 28% 69–63 ✓
Nevada @ Colorado State +3.9 136.0 73% 59–67 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge +3.4 148.4 66% 78–72 ✗
SMU @ Clemson +4.8 139.2 72% 54–57 ✓
Kansas @ Arizona +3.6 153.2 73% 77–88 ✓
UTSA @ East Carolina +1.8 150.4 60% 65–70 ✓
Villanova @ UConn +4.3 136.4 71% 56–73 ✓
Oklahoma @ Kentucky +7.2 160.7 71% 84–85 ✓
Tarleton State @ California Baptist +8.5 127.9 79% 51–55 ✓
UNLV @ Utah State +9.5 141.0 81% 58–70 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Riverside +3.2 164.9 64% 96–83 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ VCU +8.9 129.4 84% 59–76 ✓
Oregon @ Michigan State +4.3 139.9 70% 64–74 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Liberty +9.5 140.8 80% 79–81 ✓
Ole Miss @ Auburn +12.8 155.7 85% 57–62 ✓
Wichita State @ Memphis +10.1 147.2 85% 80–83 ✓
Grambling @ Alabama State +3.2 130.7 70% 62–64 ✓
Saint Louis @ Loyola Chicago +0.5 142.4 53% 64–72 ✓
Wisconsin @ UCLA -0.5 136.6 53% 86–70 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State -0.9 139.1 48% 68–70 ✗
Texas @ Tennessee +9.9 136.2 81% 72–83 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Tulane -1.3 145.5 45% 76–83 ✗
Toledo @ Akron +9.4 162.2 84% 90–100 ✓
George Washington @ George Mason +4.1 130.9 65% 65–80 ✓
Morgan State @ Norfolk State +10.5 153.4 85% 55–58 ✓
Iona @ Quinnipiac +1.9 142.1 56% 81–73 ✗
Marquette @ St. John's +4.2 143.3 67% 63–79 ✓
Illinois @ Maryland +4.1 152.8 67% 65–88 ✓
North Carolina @ Duke +11.2 150.0 84% 71–74 ✓
BYU @ Houston +9.3 129.3 80% 54–74 ✓
Missouri @ Florida +9.9 159.4 81% 81–95 ✓
Tulsa @ North Texas +12.1 125.8 87% 59–77 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Dayton +2.4 143.8 62% 73–68 ✗
Kent State @ Miami (OH) -1.6 144.7 43% 64–72 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.