The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
Clemson Tigers
57 54
FINAL Neutral Conference ACC
SMU Mustangs
Atlantic Coast Conference · Spectrum Center (Neutral) · March 14, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread CLEM -6.5 Away covered
O/U 142.5 Under
Money CLEM -300 / SMU +250
Model Predictions
Spread Total CLEM win
Actual CLEM +3 111 Won
Massey CLEM -3.5 (-0.5)
Massey Totals 147.3 (-36.3)
Bradley-Terry 76%
Weighted B-T 82%
Efficiency Plus ML CLEM -5.7 (-2.7) 138.9 (-27.9) 71%
Baseline Tuned ML CLEM -5.6 (-2.6) 141.4 (-30.4) 73%
Baseline ML CLEM -5.2 (-2.2) 139.1 (-28.1) 68%
Baseline Plus ML CLEM -4.8 (-1.8) 139.2 (-28.2) 72%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 8, 2026 CLEM 7470 SMU
Feb 22, 2025 CLEM 7969 SMU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CLEM SMU
Overall 27-7 24-11
Conference 18-2 13-7
Home 15-2 13-6
Away 9-3 7-4
Neutral 3-2 4-1
Last 5 5-0 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 76.1 79.9
Avg Pts Against 65.8 71.3
Massey 15.9 (#26) 12.4 (#44)
Bradley-Terry 2.98 (#16) 1.80 (#56)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.68 (#16) 2.15 (#60)
RPI 0.621 (#13) 0.564 (#60)
Shooting & Four Factors CLEM SMU
FG% 47.0% 48.3%
3PT% 37.8% 38.3%
REB / G 35.4 38.6
OREB / G 11.2 12.6
AST / TO 1.43 1.32
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.3% 55.1%
TOV% 15.6% 17.4%
ORB% 34.0% 37.0%
FT Rate 21.3% 26.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.1% 47.9%
Opp TOV% 20.1% 17.6%
DRB% 69.9% 69.4%
Opp FT Rate 18.6% 24.0%

Game Analysis

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