Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | DSU -110 NCCU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +2 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | DSU -0.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DSU -0.6 (-2.6) | 151.5 (+4.5) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DSU -0.8 (-2.8) | 149.2 (+6.8) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DSU -0.5 (-2.5) | 150.2 (+5.8) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DSU -0.6 (-2.6) | 150.1 (+5.9) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | NCCU 59 – 53 DSU |
| Feb 28, 2026 | NCCU 74 – 60 DSU |
| Feb 10, 2026 | NCCU 72 – 63 DSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | DSU 86 – 84 NCCU |
| Jan 14, 2025 | NCCU 75 – 72 DSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DSU | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 6-8 |
| Home | 11-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-11 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.6 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#306) | -9.3 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#285) | -1.77 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#303) | -2.52 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#281) | 0.436 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DSU | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 61.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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