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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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27–15 on winners spread MAE 7.2 42 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UNC Asheville @ High Point +9.3 157.2 80% 100–104 ✓
NC State @ Stanford +6.2 139.3 71% 73–74 ✓
Vermont @ UAlbany +4.0 129.8 64% 68–62 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Lamar +5.2 145.7 68% 68–70 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Wright State +10.3 153.7 83% 73–91 ✓
Green Bay @ Purdue Fort Wayne +17.7 162.1 95% 74–89 ✓
Bellarmine @ Jacksonville +17.5 146.7 94% 64–73 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Long Beach State -11.4 148.6 15% 81–80 ✓
San Diego @ Santa Clara +23.5 153.3 98% 70–93 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Fairfield -2.8 154.1 40% 77–71 ✓
Iona @ Marist +6.6 128.8 73% 75–71 ✗
East Carolina @ UTSA +1.6 152.2 56% 80–79 ✗
Bradley @ Evansville -8.6 134.6 22% 80–74 ✓
Montana @ Northern Arizona +0.5 149.7 52% 83–80 ✗
Montana State @ Northern Colorado +5.8 153.0 70% 66–73 ✓
Gonzaga @ Pacific -25.8 155.4 1% 78–61 ✓
UT Arlington @ Seattle U +8.4 148.9 78% 65–67 ✓
Grand Canyon @ California Baptist -2.8 148.4 40% 71–85 ✗
South Dakota @ Oral Roberts -2.3 178.8 42% 75–74 ✓
Alabama @ Arkansas -4.9 164.6 33% 85–81 ✓
Ole Miss @ LSU -5.3 147.7 31% 72–70 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Southern Utah +2.8 138.0 60% 84–70 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Southern Indiana -3.9 144.3 36% 79–74 ✓
Idaho State @ Weber State -2.6 141.2 41% 72–67 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Fullerton -4.1 132.9 35% 65–49 ✓
San Francisco @ Loyola Marymount -4.2 135.6 35% 72–66 ✓
UTEP @ New Mexico State +1.5 136.8 55% 66–63 ✗
San Diego State @ Colorado State -1.1 133.2 46% 63–68 ✗
UC San Diego @ UC Irvine +1.2 138.2 54% 85–67 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Riverside +8.1 148.6 77% 64–69 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Santa Barbara +6.1 136.6 71% 72–76 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Oregon State -2.8 134.4 40% 63–49 ✓
Texas Tech @ Arizona +2.9 153.7 60% 73–82 ✓
Northwestern @ Washington -2.3 140.9 42% 71–76 ✗
Rutgers @ Maryland +13.9 154.0 90% 81–90 ✓
George Washington @ St. Bonaventure +6.2 134.2 71% 62–52 ✗
Xavier @ Villanova +3.0 147.9 61% 68–80 ✓
Temple @ Memphis +15.0 161.8 91% 82–90 ✓
Arizona State @ Oklahoma State -3.2 143.4 39% 73–86 ✗
Wichita State @ South Florida +0.2 150.4 51% 75–70 ✗
Massachusetts @ La Salle +2.5 156.1 59% 78–55 ✗
Ohio State @ Nebraska -1.8 146.7 44% 71–79 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.