We are like Greeks. We are like Romans. / Centaurs and monkeys just cluster 'round us "Nemesis" - Shriekback
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–24 on winners spread MAE 10.1 60 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Georgia State @ Kentucky +31.1 160.0 100% 76–105 ✓
Seattle U @ Duke +23.3 142.3 98% 48–70 ✓
UNLV @ Northwestern +4.3 134.6 65% 61–66 ✓
North Florida @ SIU Edwardsville +3.1 151.2 61% 78–73 ✗
Le Moyne @ Manhattan +9.0 147.6 79% 81–77 ✗
Rice @ Hofstra -3.4 136.2 38% 63–68 ✗
Florida A&M @ Clemson +24.1 143.3 99% 58–86 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ UL Monroe +3.0 119.3 61% 68–60 ✗
Towson @ Kennesaw State +1.9 140.8 57% 63–67 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Texas Tech +13.5 163.2 89% 64–89 ✓
Northwestern State @ LSU +14.4 144.8 90% 53–77 ✓
Davidson @ Gonzaga +20.0 163.2 97% 65–90 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Northern Iowa -7.0 138.9 26% 68–56 ✓
Delaware State @ Texas +29.6 143.0 100% 68–90 ✓
Butler @ Mississippi State +8.8 147.9 79% 87–77 ✗
Saint Mary's @ Arizona State -2.2 145.4 42% 64–68 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ UC Santa Barbara +33.7 131.8 100% 48–81 ✓
UC Irvine @ Kent State -9.0 130.6 21% 51–39 ✓
USC @ New Mexico +10.9 154.3 84% 73–83 ✓
Southern @ Louisiana Tech +16.5 147.3 93% 73–70 ✗
Colgate @ Sam Houston +6.7 143.8 73% 78–82 ✓
Monmouth @ Seton Hall +16.0 122.4 93% 63–51 ✗
Chicago State @ Wisconsin +40.2 152.5 100% 53–74 ✓
Creighton @ Notre Dame +2.3 150.0 58% 80–76 ✗
Campbell @ Green Bay +9.3 155.6 80% 72–66 ✗
Northeastern @ Vermont -3.8 128.2 37% 64–68 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Georgia Tech +15.0 153.6 91% 68–87 ✓
Western Carolina @ Marquette +34.9 150.2 100% 62–94 ✓
New Mexico State @ Bowling Green -2.7 144.4 40% 60–61 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Howard +7.3 145.1 75% 79–75 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ East Texas A&M -5.6 151.8 31% 77–57 ✓
Binghamton @ Long Island University +4.7 138.6 67% 75–70 ✗
Navy @ Elon +19.8 156.0 96% 63–69 ✓
Robert Morris @ Ohio +4.3 146.5 65% 68–84 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Coastal Carolina +11.5 157.3 85% 51–73 ✓
Iona @ Indiana State +8.0 152.0 77% 80–83 ✓
Milwaukee @ Southern Miss -2.1 161.1 43% 65–66 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Miami +19.3 156.3 96% 83–79 ✗
Delaware @ Rider +5.6 141.5 70% 72–66 ✗
Nicholls @ Louisiana -1.7 156.0 44% 76–75 ✓
App State @ UNC Wilmington +2.4 131.8 59% 61–76 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Montana State +1.1 157.1 54% 72–69 ✗
Texas A&M @ Rutgers -6.0 153.6 29% 81–77 ✓
Austin Peay @ East Tennessee State +7.4 131.9 75% 57–79 ✓
Houston Christian @ UTSA +11.3 150.9 85% 71–78 ✓
UAlbany @ Georgetown +7.5 139.1 75% 68–100 ✓
Temple @ La Salle +4.9 153.8 67% 75–83 ✓
Weber State @ Pepperdine +0.8 151.6 53% 68–53 ✗
Niagara @ Lafayette +7.3 144.1 75% 47–59 ✓
Maine @ Pennsylvania -15.7 139.0 8% 64–77 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +14.4 181.1 90% 74–109 ✓
Hofstra @ Tarleton State -16.0 131.4 7% 59–61 ✗
UC Riverside @ Idaho -1.6 149.1 44% 68–80 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Utah +23.2 156.9 98% 80–88 ✓
Harvard @ St. John's +27.7 149.7 99% 64–77 ✓
Furman @ Kansas +11.2 137.8 85% 51–86 ✓
Bellarmine @ Northern Kentucky +8.4 138.5 78% 70–86 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Drake +18.9 147.4 96% 47–61 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Florida Atlantic +13.1 151.8 88% 80–78 ✗
Siena @ Bucknell +4.4 149.1 65% 71–58 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.