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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
29–8 on winners
spread MAE 8.2
37 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
South Carolina Upstate
@
Tennessee
|
+31.2 | 133.2 | 100% | 52–96 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
LSU
|
+43.2 | 139.0 | 100% | 49–89 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Troy
|
+10.3 | 134.9 | 82% | 57–66 | ✓ |
North Carolina A&T
@
East Tennessee State
|
+12.9 | 137.6 | 88% | 69–67 | ✗ |
Saint Francis
@
Hartford
|
+1.9 | 160.1 | 57% | 81–66 | ✗ |
UNC Greensboro
@
Towson
|
+14.0 | 127.7 | 90% | 64–74 | ✓ |
Austin Peay
@
South Florida
|
+1.5 | 121.8 | 55% | 51–60 | ✓ |
Florida A&M
@
Cincinnati
|
+20.4 | 123.2 | 97% | 50–77 | ✓ |
VMI
@
Wake Forest
|
+17.2 | 154.2 | 94% | 70–77 | ✓ |
Furman
@
North Carolina
|
+11.8 | 167.2 | 86% | 61–74 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Clemson
|
+7.7 | 145.5 | 76% | 76–89 | ✓ |
Monmouth
@
Yale
|
-2.6 | 142.4 | 41% | 69–60 | ✓ |
UL Monroe
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+14.0 | 147.0 | 90% | 82–69 | ✗ |
Grambling
@
UAB
|
+27.7 | 139.7 | 99% | 61–79 | ✓ |
South Carolina State
@
Duke
|
+34.0 | 156.4 | 100% | 62–103 | ✓ |
Louisiana
@
Houston
|
+30.0 | 137.9 | 100% | 56–71 | ✓ |
Arkansas State
@
Texas Tech
|
+25.3 | 140.1 | 99% | 62–75 | ✓ |
Tarleton State
@
South Alabama
|
+13.6 | 119.6 | 89% | 62–69 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
UT Martin
|
-0.2 | 139.7 | 49% | 68–79 | ✗ |
Jackson State
@
Northern Iowa
|
+6.9 | 123.0 | 73% | 56–66 | ✓ |
DePaul
@
UIC
|
-8.3 | 149.1 | 22% | 72–66 | ✓ |
Arizona State
@
Creighton
|
+10.2 | 134.6 | 82% | 58–57 | ✗ |
Alcorn State
@
Wichita State
|
+14.0 | 124.7 | 90% | 63–82 | ✓ |
Georgia State
@
Mississippi State
|
+15.0 | 151.5 | 91% | 50–79 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Minnesota
|
+16.2 | 142.1 | 93% | 71–79 | ✓ |
Sam Houston
@
North Texas
|
+14.8 | 114.7 | 91% | 55–65 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
Drexel
|
+12.9 | 144.4 | 88% | 69–76 | ✓ |
Jacksonville
@
Southern Miss
|
-8.7 | 116.4 | 21% | 62–51 | ✓ |
Texas Southern
@
UT Rio Grande Valley
|
+0.9 | 149.4 | 53% | 70–60 | ✗ |
Alabama
@
Memphis
|
-5.4 | 159.5 | 31% | 78–92 | ✗ |
North Alabama
@
Auburn
|
+27.4 | 131.7 | 99% | 44–70 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Texas
|
+31.1 | 137.0 | 100% | 31–63 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Boise State
|
+6.3 | 140.2 | 72% | 60–72 | ✓ |
UC Davis
@
Oregon State
|
+1.9 | 137.7 | 57% | 71–64 | ✗ |
UC Santa Barbara
@
Pacific
|
+0.4 | 135.6 | 52% | 71–80 | ✓ |
Chattanooga
@
Belmont
|
+4.0 | 142.2 | 64% | 68–76 | ✓ |
Howard
@
Georgetown
|
+5.1 | 159.7 | 68% | 73–85 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.