← All models

Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →

20–6 on winners spread MAE 9.6 26 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
UCF @ Temple	-3.0	137.5	39%	65–48	✓
Gardner-Webb @ North Carolina Central	-3.0	132.5	39%	71–72	✗
Marshall @ Ohio	+8.4	153.1	78%	65–75	✓
Georgia Southern @ Campbell	+6.2	118.9	71%	69–66	✗
Winthrop @ Elon	-6.5	162.7	28%	61–63	✗
Florida Atlantic @ VCU	+11.4	129.9	85%	46–66	✓
South Dakota State @ Missouri State	+5.5	161.8	69%	63–75	✓
Florida International @ Jacksonville State	+5.9	137.9	70%	59–66	✓
Fairfield @ Fairleigh Dickinson	-9.9	143.7	18%	72–54	✓
Akron @ Wright State	+1.1	144.5	54%	66–48	✗
Middle Tennessee @ Ole Miss	+0.3	132.2	51%	52–62	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Southern Illinois	+12.2	138.6	87%	55–80	✓
Nicholls @ Wisconsin	+17.2	133.5	94%	68–71	✓
Lamar @ Texas State	+18.2	141.7	95%	47–67	✓
Bellarmine @ South Dakota	+2.4	137.9	59%	64–78	✓
Morehead State @ Xavier	+15.3	134.9	92%	63–86	✓
Northern Colorado @ Arizona	+30.6	159.0	100%	76–101	✓
UC Irvine @ USC	+9.9	122.6	82%	61–66	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Abilene Christian	+16.2	130.1	93%	59–69	✓
Utah State @ Weber State	-1.6	143.4	44%	95–80	✓
Portland @ Oregon	+11.4	141.8	85%	71–96	✓
Lipscomb @ Florida State	+13.8	144.2	89%	60–97	✓
UC San Diego @ Denver	-1.1	132.0	46%	56–64	✗
New Mexico State @ Washington State	+11.9	141.4	86%	64–61	✗
Omaha @ UNLV	+19.1	137.4	96%	71–84	✓
Incarnate Word @ Rice	+16.5	160.2	93%	55–85	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.