Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–11 on winners spread MAE 9.3 47 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Morgan State @ North Carolina A&T +7.6 156.1 81% 83–86 ✓
Austin Peay @ Morehead State -3.2 135.3 40% 58–63 ✗
Columbia @ Long Island University -2.2 147.1 37% 80–72 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Army +11.5 154.5 86% 70–84 ✓
South Dakota @ Western Michigan -0.8 152.4 42% 80–76 ✓
Elon @ Northern Illinois -3.1 141.0 41% 75–48 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Ball State +4.6 140.1 68% 70–59 ✗
Maine @ Richmond +2.1 135.8 68% 66–70 ✓
Lafayette @ Rhode Island +17.6 149.4 89% 72–86 ✓
New Mexico State @ Dayton +13.3 143.1 88% 53–74 ✓
Coppin State @ George Mason +22.6 139.5 91% 55–93 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Penn State +14.8 159.5 86% 89–102 ✓
Jacksonville @ Virginia Tech +9.7 135.5 81% 74–64 ✗
Iona @ West Virginia +11.1 143.2 85% 43–86 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Kennesaw State +11.0 140.4 84% 78–84 ✓
Towson @ Nicholls +3.6 136.0 62% 70–64 ✗
Southern @ Texas A&M +20.7 144.2 89% 54–71 ✓
Merrimack @ Rutgers +13.6 131.0 87% 63–74 ✓
Southern Miss @ South Dakota State +11.0 153.7 85% 76–101 ✓
Little Rock @ Tulsa +6.1 154.0 67% 71–57 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Murray State +22.1 150.5 90% 61–79 ✓
Jackson State @ Western Kentucky +10.9 143.0 85% 62–79 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Georgetown +1.6 143.8 68% 51–79 ✓
Long Beach State @ Gonzaga +24.4 146.5 90% 41–84 ✓
Illinois @ Alabama +1.2 167.2 64% 87–100 ✓
UC Davis @ Grand Canyon +3.8 153.1 71% 75–68 ✗
Cal Poly @ Arizona State +13.0 153.4 87% 89–93 ✓
UTEP @ UC Santa Barbara — — — 79–76 —
Pepperdine @ UNLV +12.0 151.2 86% 59–80 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Fresno State +12.1 156.3 87% 83–94 ✓
San José State @ USC +15.4 137.3 84% 68–82 ✓
Norfolk State @ Stanford +13.8 136.5 88% 63–70 ✓
Northern Colorado @ California Baptist +1.1 152.7 54% 79–68 ✗
Idaho State @ UCLA +14.2 132.5 86% 70–84 ✓
James Madison @ UIC +0.5 151.6 51% 99–81 ✗
Ohio @ Middle Tennessee +3.4 142.4 67% 81–83 ✓
Miami @ Drake +0.1 137.3 60% 69–80 ✓
La Salle @ UC San Diego -1.1 138.2 55% 67–72 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Florida Atlantic +5.0 154.6 71% 78–86 ✓
South Florida @ Portland -5.2 143.9 23% 74–68 ✓
East Carolina @ Jacksonville State +2.8 139.5 73% 78–86 ✓
Youngstown State @ Monmouth -3.8 147.9 29% 72–62 ✓
Seton Hall @ VCU +5.4 127.8 55% 69–66 ✗
Bradley @ Texas State -3.1 136.2 39% 82–68 ✓
Robert Morris @ Cornell +10.0 143.3 80% 86–76 ✗
Toledo @ Stetson -10.2 153.4 20% 103–78 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Indiana +12.8 144.6 85% 58–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.