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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
36–16 on winners
spread MAE 8.3
52 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-1.8 | 142.8 | 32% | 99–98 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.0 | 145.3 | 33% | 66–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.5 | 143.4 | 89% | 64–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.7 | 143.6 | 85% | 73–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 128.9 | 60% | 68–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.4 | 148.3 | 89% | 72–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.4 | 149.0 | 86% | 66–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.0 | 147.5 | 88% | 51–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.1 | 127.4 | 53% | 58–55 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.9 | 145.7 | 53% | 77–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+22.3 | 146.1 | 90% | 56–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 143.1 | 78% | 64–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.9 | 136.0 | 51% | 54–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.5 | 149.0 | 58% | 77–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 144.8 | 55% | 62–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.3 | 140.8 | 89% | 68–100 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 144.3 | 52% | 73–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+23.5 | 139.7 | 91% | 49–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.0 | 147.2 | 89% | 58–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.4 | 150.0 | 79% | 81–96 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.1 | 146.2 | 24% | 77–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.3 | 145.7 | 63% | 68–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.5 | 138.9 | 34% | 78–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.3 | 138.8 | 89% | 69–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.8 | 123.7 | 88% | 42–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.1 | 151.1 | 42% | 83–96 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.4 | 135.5 | 59% | 54–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.8 | 146.3 | 30% | 85–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 143.7 | 42% | 75–63 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.8 | 141.4 | 41% | 89–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.8 | 143.6 | 27% | 71–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.4 | 142.2 | 32% | 60–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 148.6 | 50% | 95–88 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.9 | 147.3 | 65% | 74–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.2 | 145.7 | 84% | 63–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 135.9 | 65% | 68–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.2 | 139.7 | 62% | 67–42 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.1 | 139.7 | 44% | 67–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.0 | 128.1 | 71% | 60–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 147.4 | 61% | 70–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.5 | 146.2 | 40% | 77–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 132.0 | 71% | 60–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.9 | 140.1 | 40% | 73–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.0 | 131.1 | 68% | 57–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 147.0 | 75% | 69–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+26.3 | 152.9 | 91% | 53–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.6 | 132.6 | 88% | 69–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.1 | 129.6 | 67% | 67–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.8 | 138.2 | 33% | 53–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.0 | 152.9 | 88% | 72–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+21.7 | 134.8 | 89% | 60–104 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.4 | 150.5 | 28% | 82–80 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.