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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
23–13 on winners
spread MAE 8.3
36 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+0.8 | 127.0 | 47% | 53–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.2 | 160.3 | 85% | 77–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.1 | 142.3 | 72% | 74–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.6 | 151.1 | 47% | 82–87 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.4 | 141.2 | 38% | 81–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 137.3 | 74% | 57–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.7 | 150.6 | 84% | 47–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 138.0 | 81% | 79–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.5 | 136.3 | 72% | 54–50 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.7 | 138.5 | 63% | 80–64 | ✗ |
|
|
-8.7 | 136.8 | 20% | 80–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 149.9 | 60% | 90–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.2 | 151.9 | 72% | 89–75 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.1 | 142.2 | 46% | 86–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 146.3 | 57% | 78–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.9 | 137.6 | 30% | 80–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.2 | 138.2 | 69% | 61–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.4 | 141.6 | 83% | 73–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 134.3 | 56% | 58–56 | ✗ |
|
|
-8.4 | 146.8 | 25% | 72–88 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.0 | 155.4 | 67% | 72–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 139.0 | 55% | 58–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.9 | 148.3 | 89% | 59–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-14.8 | 139.1 | 13% | 84–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.5 | 139.9 | 83% | 69–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 140.0 | 46% | 75–53 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.4 | 141.1 | 80% | 55–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 135.6 | 67% | 75–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.9 | 134.9 | 89% | 54–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.8 | 148.1 | 39% | 73–83 | ✗ |
|
|
-9.6 | 140.1 | 18% | 81–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.2 | 130.8 | 20% | 68–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.4 | 128.7 | 53% | 71–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.4 | 138.3 | 50% | 76–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.4 | 140.6 | 78% | 73–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 150.1 | 62% | 85–93 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.