Betting Lines
| Spread | YSU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Over |
| Money | YSU -160 PFW +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YSU +8 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | YSU -0.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (+25.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YSU -2.3 (+5.7) | 150.1 (+27.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -0.4 (+8.4) | 147.4 (+30.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YSU -0.0 (+8.0) | 149.3 (+28.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YSU -0.4 (+7.6) | 153.1 (+24.9) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | YSU 90 – 61 PFW |
| Jan 8, 2026 | PFW 71 – 69 YSU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | YSU 72 – 67 PFW |
| Feb 12, 2025 | YSU 93 – 71 PFW |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PFW 90 – 81 YSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YSU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 8-7 | 10-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.4 | 78.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#162) | 3.9 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#159) | 1.00 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#160) | 1.16 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#176) | 0.517 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YSU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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