Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Over |
| Money | SJU -335 PROV +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +2 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -7.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -6.4 (-4.4) | 140.6 (+7.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -5.9 (-3.9) | 138.2 (+9.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -5.5 (-3.5) | 138.8 (+9.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -6.1 (-4.1) | 142.7 (+5.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SJU 85 – 72 PROV |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SJU 79 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PROV 77 – 71 SJU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJU 68 – 66 PROV |
| Dec 21, 2024 | SJU 72 – 70 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-5 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 12.7 (#30) | 9.7 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#38) | 1.89 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#41) | 2.82 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#35) | 0.596 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 15.9 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 41.6% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 43.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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