Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
| Money | CIN -205 TEX +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +1 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | CIN -8.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -7.1 (-8.1) | 142.3 (+4.7) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -7.4 (-8.4) | 142.0 (+5.0) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -7.3 (-8.3) | 140.8 (+6.2) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -7.5 (-8.5) | 142.4 (+4.6) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-5 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 68.9 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#21) | 9.4 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#27) | 1.45 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.42 (#25) | 1.94 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#34) | 0.553 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 43.9 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 80.2% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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