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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
25–13 on winners
spread MAE 9.0
38 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+2.8 | 126.7 | 65% | 58–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 141.5 | 38% | 85–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 136.8 | 53% | 61–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.2 | 140.3 | 60% | 76–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 139.3 | 61% | 73–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 125.5 | 48% | 69–57 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.2 | 137.1 | 54% | 72–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.5 | 133.1 | 76% | 56–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 127.2 | 66% | 78–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.5 | 135.7 | 55% | 83–80 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.6 | 151.2 | 48% | 60–82 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.7 | 133.5 | 44% | 60–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.0 | 127.3 | 77% | 49–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 130.2 | 67% | 69–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 124.8 | 57% | 56–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 141.4 | 71% | 80–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.7 | 142.3 | 64% | 60–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 151.5 | 50% | 76–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.2 | 152.6 | 62% | 89–88 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.6 | 134.0 | 57% | 87–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.6 | 153.8 | 74% | 59–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.3 | 141.2 | 43% | 72–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.6 | 140.6 | 75% | 59–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 148.7 | 72% | 60–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.6 | 157.6 | 75% | 61–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.2 | 132.9 | 72% | 66–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.7 | 141.5 | 49% | 64–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.9 | 138.2 | 65% | 78–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.4 | 147.6 | 73% | 70–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.1 | 132.5 | 82% | 48–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 138.3 | 52% | 77–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.1 | 129.7 | 63% | 68–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 138.1 | 68% | 75–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 133.3 | 64% | 61–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.5 | 158.2 | 77% | 54–94 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.5 | 139.6 | 50% | 76–56 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 136.3 | 55% | 57–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 154.6 | 49% | 51–65 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.