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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
25–12 on winners
spread MAE 8.4
37 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+8.3 | 127.3 | 75% | 59–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 144.1 | 62% | 82–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.6 | 146.7 | 55% | 75–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.4 | 143.9 | 87% | 61–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 154.9 | 48% | 67–76 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.2 | 131.5 | 19% | 77–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 135.3 | 48% | 73–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.0 | 141.6 | 64% | 74–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-14.3 | 126.0 | 13% | 70–56 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.2 | 147.8 | 79% | 73–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.8 | 138.9 | 74% | 61–55 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.8 | 140.5 | 73% | 69–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 139.9 | 66% | 65–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.1 | 143.5 | 52% | 76–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.6 | 138.6 | 39% | 63–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.2 | 138.1 | 63% | 70–53 | ✗ |
|
|
+20.7 | 147.3 | 90% | 59–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.0 | 127.1 | 89% | 40–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.5 | 143.1 | 81% | 72–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 137.6 | 49% | 57–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.6 | 154.8 | 61% | 66–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-13.1 | 139.4 | 14% | 59–47 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 137.8 | 50% | 63–61 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.6 | 143.2 | 30% | 78–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.8 | 128.8 | 74% | 55–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.3 | 150.5 | 33% | 83–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 139.6 | 75% | 69–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.1 | 132.2 | 42% | 62–55 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.7 | 145.3 | 88% | 67–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.7 | 137.8 | 88% | 48–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 133.5 | 61% | 56–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.0 | 146.4 | 47% | 79–98 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.1 | 132.9 | 83% | 43–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.0 | 139.6 | 90% | 61–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.1 | 151.6 | 53% | 84–92 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.7 | 134.8 | 58% | 74–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.1 | 159.4 | 50% | 80–81 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.