Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +7 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -2.9 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -2.1 (-4.9) | 132.2 (-15.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -0.6 (-6.4) | 133.7 (-16.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -0.6 (-6.4) | 134.3 (-17.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -1.3 (-5.7) | 132.7 (-15.7) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 86 UNLV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SDSU 82 – 71 UNLV |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UNLV 74 – 67 SDSU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | UNLV 76 – 68 SDSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SDSU 74 – 71 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 23-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-4 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 58.1 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#162) | 7.6 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#134) | 2.04 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#121) | 2.67 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#117) | 0.613 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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