Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +20 | 100 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -19.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (-28.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -14.0 (+6.0) | 127.1 (-27.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -14.2 (+5.8) | 132.5 (-32.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -15.7 (+4.3) | 129.6 (-29.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -15.0 (+5.0) | 130.1 (-30.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | IDST 91 – 76 MTST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | MTST 74 – 62 IDST |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MTST 80 – 60 IDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MTST 74 – 69 IDST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | IDST 70 – 67 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 5-15 |
| Home | 13-1 | 5-8 |
| Away | 9-6 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#170) | -15.6 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#151) | -4.76 (#358) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#162) | -6.48 (#358) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#120) | 0.305 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 26.4% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 28.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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