Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +9 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | KU -19.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -15.7 (-6.7) | 145.3 (-2.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -18.1 (-9.1) | 150.1 (-7.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -17.8 (-8.8) | 149.7 (-6.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -18.3 (-9.3) | 149.4 (-6.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-9 |
| Home | 19-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 9-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W11 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 18.7 (#6) | 3.9 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.43 (#9) | 0.17 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.28 (#3) | 0.27 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.676 (#5) | 0.506 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.1% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.3% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 78.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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