Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +8 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -2.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (+21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -1.1 (+9.1) | 151.6 (+24.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -0.0 (+8.0) | 151.9 (+24.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -0.0 (+8.0) | 152.4 (+23.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -0.0 (+8.0) | 153.3 (+22.7) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | MIA 81 – 77 WAKE |
| Jan 11, 2025 | WAKE 88 – 78 MIA |
| Jan 6, 2024 | WAKE 86 – 82 MIA |
| Mar 9, 2023 | MIA 74 – 72 WAKE |
| Feb 18, 2023 | MIA 96 – 87 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 18-2 |
| Away | 10-2 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#120) | 9.7 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#64) | 2.35 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#74) | 3.20 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#58) | 0.561 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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