Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +12 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -0.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -0.1 (+11.9) | 143.5 (+20.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -1.1 (+10.9) | 145.2 (+18.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -0.7 (+11.3) | 146.3 (+17.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -0.4 (+11.6) | 145.4 (+18.6) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | AKR 73 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 25, 2026 | AKR 99 – 85 BUF |
| Jan 20, 2026 | AKR 82 – 63 BUF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | AKR 88 – 70 BUF |
| Jan 22, 2025 | AKR 90 – 58 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 19-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-3 |
| Away | 8-4 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.9 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#166) | 4.1 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#190) | -0.02 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#211) | 0.80 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#203) | 0.497 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 42.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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