Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +14 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -15.7 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -14.3 (+0.3) | 126.0 (+0.0) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -13.8 (-0.2) | 130.2 (-4.2) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -14.4 (+0.4) | 132.2 (-6.2) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -12.8 (-1.2) | 127.2 (-1.2) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | NAVY 85 – 68 HC |
| Jan 3, 2026 | NAVY 65 – 58 HC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | NAVY 83 – 77 HC |
| Jan 8, 2025 | HC 70 – 59 NAVY |
| Feb 25, 2024 | NAVY 76 – 66 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 5-9 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 60.8 |
| Massey | -15.2 (#351) | 4.8 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.99 (#353) | 0.87 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.42 (#353) | 1.05 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.321 (#355) | 0.538 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.51 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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