Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | DEP -120 PROV +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +17 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | DEP -3.5 (-20.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -2.2 (-19.2) | 138.1 (-15.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -2.6 (-19.6) | 139.3 (-16.3) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEP -2.4 (-19.4) | 139.2 (-16.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -2.8 (-19.8) | 140.4 (-17.4) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PROV 71 – 68 DEP |
| Feb 7, 2026 | PROV 90 – 72 DEP |
| Mar 5, 2025 | DEP 80 – 77 PROV |
| Dec 11, 2024 | PROV 70 – 63 DEP |
| Feb 18, 2024 | PROV 81 – 70 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 27-6 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-3 |
| Home | 11-7 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-9 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#55) | 9.5 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#54) | 3.97 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#43) | 4.48 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#73) | 0.673 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.9% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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