Betting Lines
| Spread | ARMY -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARMY +3 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | ARMY -1.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (+12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARMY -1.0 (+2.0) | 141.6 (+9.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -0.1 (+3.1) | 141.7 (+9.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARMY -0.1 (+2.9) | 141.9 (+9.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARMY -1.3 (+1.7) | 142.9 (+8.1) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | ARMY 87 – 77 L-MD |
| Jan 7, 2026 | L-MD 84 – 76 ARMY |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ARMY 64 – 60 L-MD |
| Jan 8, 2025 | ARMY 74 – 72 L-MD |
| Mar 2, 2024 | L-MD 69 – 68 ARMY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-12 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#289) | -4.3 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#275) | -0.43 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#294) | -1.09 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#248) | 0.469 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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