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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
18–6 on winners
spread MAE 7.9
24 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+10.9 | 140.8 | 83% | 68–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.9 | 131.4 | 83% | 69–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.4 | 155.2 | 89% | 62–107 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 149.8 | 78% | 91–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.4 | 140.1 | 54% | 72–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-11.0 | 154.2 | 14% | 64–50 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.3 | 158.5 | 80% | 70–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.3 | 133.3 | 81% | 64–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 141.5 | 72% | 66–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.5 | 139.0 | 37% | 91–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.1 | 143.1 | 61% | 71–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 141.4 | 48% | 73–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.2 | 147.1 | 85% | 66–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 143.3 | 57% | 60–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 147.8 | 69% | 71–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.8 | 136.3 | 43% | 63–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.1 | 131.8 | 86% | 66–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 151.9 | 71% | 76–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.8 | 138.1 | 84% | 61–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 145.3 | 78% | 69–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.0 | 141.3 | 45% | 73–77 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.8 | 131.6 | 49% | 58–61 | ✗ |
|
|
-13.1 | 132.2 | 14% | 66–61 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.2 | 137.0 | 46% | 67–64 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.