Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -5.0 Push |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +5 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -5.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -3.8 (+1.2) | 151.9 (+5.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -3.6 (+1.4) | 148.1 (+8.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -3.0 (+2.0) | 149.9 (+7.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -4.2 (+0.8) | 150.6 (+6.4) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | ILST 86 – 64 VAL |
| Jan 8, 2026 | VAL 77 – 71 ILST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | ILST 86 – 78 VAL |
| Mar 3, 2024 | VAL 75 – 72 ILST |
| Jan 14, 2024 | VAL 59 – 50 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-8 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#181) | -1.4 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#232) | -0.45 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#209) | -0.50 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#258) | 0.466 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 18.6% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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