Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +3 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | IU -2.8 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (-10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -1.8 (+4.8) | 131.6 (-12.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -2.5 (+5.5) | 133.5 (-14.5) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IU -1.8 (+4.8) | 135.4 (-16.4) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -2.4 (+5.4) | 131.2 (-12.2) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2025 | IU 113 – 72 PSU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | IU 83 – 78 PSU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | IU 77 – 71 PSU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | IU 61 – 59 PSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | PSU 83 – 74 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 14-4 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#108) | 11.3 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#117) | 1.69 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#102) | 2.33 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#88) | 0.589 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 41.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 40.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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