Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +4 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | PENN -2.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRWN -0.0 (+4.0) | 141.3 (+8.7) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -0.6 (+3.4) | 144.3 (+5.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -0.1 (+3.9) | 145.2 (+4.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRWN -0.3 (+4.3) | 143.8 (+6.2) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | PENN 82 – 61 BRWN |
| Jan 10, 2026 | PENN 81 – 73 BRWN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BRWN 82 – 72 PENN |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BRWN 88 – 79 PENN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | BRWN 71 – 64 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-16 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 5-9 |
| Home | 6-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#221) | -0.1 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#250) | 0.04 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#242) | 0.06 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#230) | 0.520 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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