Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +6 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | NU -0.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -1.3 (-7.3) | 141.4 (-1.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -0.8 (-6.8) | 143.8 (-3.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NU -0.0 (-6.0) | 141.5 (-1.5) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -0.4 (-5.6) | 144.5 (-4.5) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | MSU 76 – 66 NU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MSU 78 – 68 NU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MSU 53 – 49 NU |
| Jan 8, 2024 | NU 88 – 74 MSU |
| Dec 5, 2022 | NU 70 – 63 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#42) | 14.0 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#55) | 4.16 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#50) | 5.82 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#101) | 0.693 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.11 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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