Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -3.0 Push |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +3 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -2.3 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -1.2 (-1.8) | 137.0 (-6.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -2.0 (-1.0) | 136.3 (-5.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -2.3 (-0.7) | 136.7 (-5.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -1.5 (-1.5) | 138.3 (-7.3) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | LOU 87 – 70 GT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | GT 77 – 70 LOU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | LOU 79 – 67 GT |
| Feb 25, 2023 | GT 83 – 67 LOU |
| Feb 2, 2023 | LOU 68 – 58 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 6-14 |
| Home | 9-10 | 8-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#178) | 6.4 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#178) | 1.33 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#157) | 1.69 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#214) | 0.581 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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