Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | IONA -525 MRST +420 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +3 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | IONA -12.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -10.2 (-7.2) | 147.1 (-12.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -11.0 (-8.0) | 149.8 (-14.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -10.5 (-7.5) | 148.2 (-13.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -9.7 (-6.7) | 147.9 (-12.9) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | MRST 83 – 38 IONA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | IONA 75 – 71 MRST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MRST 70 – 65 IONA |
| Mar 3, 2024 | IONA 71 – 64 MRST |
| Nov 30, 2023 | MRST 68 – 64 IONA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-0 | 7-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#61) | 0.1 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#25) | -0.13 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#26) | -0.22 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#18) | 0.484 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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