Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +14 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | ACU -12.8 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (-45.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -11.0 (-3.0) | 154.2 (-40.2) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -9.7 (-4.3) | 154.8 (-40.8) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -8.9 (-5.1) | 154.2 (-40.2) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -10.2 (-3.8) | 155.5 (-41.5) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UTU 80 – 74 ACU |
| Feb 27, 2026 | UTU 85 – 81 ACU |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UTU 76 – 70 ACU |
| Jan 2, 2026 | UTU 79 – 64 ACU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ACU 80 – 72 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-11 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#311) | 8.3 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#253) | 1.82 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#257) | 2.14 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#251) | 0.585 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 28.2% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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