Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +5 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | INST -1.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -1.1 (+3.9) | 143.1 (+3.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -1.0 (+4.0) | 143.8 (+3.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -0.3 (+4.7) | 144.9 (+2.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -0.2 (+4.8) | 143.9 (+3.1) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | BRAD 75 – 68 INST |
| Dec 19, 2025 | BRAD 108 – 99 INST |
| Jan 16, 2025 | BRAD 118 – 65 INST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | BRAD 90 – 89 INST |
| Jan 27, 2024 | INST 95 – 86 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 2-11 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#175) | 2.6 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#184) | -0.47 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#202) | -0.56 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#162) | 0.465 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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