Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +22 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -12.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (+12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -9.8 (+12.2) | 138.1 (+5.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -9.2 (+12.8) | 135.7 (+8.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -7.9 (+14.1) | 134.5 (+9.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -8.6 (+13.4) | 134.8 (+9.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UNI 68 – 59 EVAN |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UNI 71 – 55 EVAN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | UNI 62 – 48 EVAN |
| Jan 15, 2025 | UNI 73 – 56 EVAN |
| Jan 24, 2024 | UNI 70 – 63 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 6-24 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 2-16 |
| Home | 10-4 | 4-9 |
| Away | 9-5 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 58.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#130) | -6.1 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#221) | -2.08 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#175) | -2.33 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#209) | 0.401 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 20.6% | 19.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 83.2% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.8% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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