Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +5 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -5.1 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (+20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -4.2 (-0.8) | 131.5 (+17.5) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -2.6 (-2.4) | 130.6 (+18.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -3.6 (-1.4) | 130.9 (+18.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -5.2 (+0.2) | 134.1 (+14.9) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ISU 72 – 69 BAY |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ISU 70 – 60 BAY |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ISU 74 – 55 BAY |
| Mar 16, 2024 | ISU 76 – 62 BAY |
| Feb 4, 2024 | BAY 70 – 68 ISU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.5 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#27) | 21.4 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.40 (#2) | 4.79 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.70 (#2) | 7.30 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#55) | 0.609 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 39.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.6% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.7% | 26.6% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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