Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +1 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | BGSU -1.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BGSU -1.1 (+2.1) | 159.4 (+1.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -1.1 (+2.1) | 159.1 (+1.9) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -1.0 (+2.0) | 158.3 (+2.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -1.8 (+2.8) | 159.7 (+1.3) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | BGSU 77 – 52 BALL |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BGSU 61 – 52 BALL |
| Jan 11, 2025 | BALL 91 – 69 BGSU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | BGSU 80 – 70 BALL |
| Jan 31, 2024 | BGSU 81 – 72 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 9-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 9-5 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-9 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 82.2 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#290) | -1.9 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#233) | 0.06 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#243) | -0.43 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#260) | 0.488 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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