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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–12 on winners spread MAE 11.6 46 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Bucknell @ St. John's +23.6 152.2 89% 49–97 ✓
Tennessee State @ Tennessee +20.0 150.3 89% 60–89 ✓
Colgate @ Cornell +4.5 152.9 70% 94–95 ✓
Nebraska @ New Mexico -1.2 141.9 43% 84–72 ✓
Texas Southern @ Vanderbilt +38.1 161.5 91% 74–109 ✓
Northeastern @ Princeton -2.4 137.6 35% 57–70 ✗
Pacific @ Florida Atlantic +4.0 150.0 64% 59–82 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Queens University +13.8 148.2 86% 94–101 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Central Michigan +10.8 140.6 82% 90–66 ✗
Chicago State @ Iowa +26.5 148.7 91% 54–93 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Miami (OH) +12.1 134.9 79% 71–76 ✓
Pittsburgh @ UCF -0.6 141.9 42% 67–77 ✗
Long Island University @ Fordham +0.3 136.0 49% 53–69 ✓
Elon @ Miami +19.9 158.1 87% 72–99 ✓
Western Michigan @ Ohio State +16.1 149.8 85% 58–91 ✓
Tarleton State @ Rice +3.2 145.0 65% 90–74 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Oklahoma +21.9 157.4 89% 71–95 ✓
Central Arkansas @ North Texas +16.8 130.1 89% 56–74 ✓
South Dakota @ Missouri +19.7 157.2 87% 68–102 ✓
Wake Forest @ Texas Tech +7.3 150.4 69% 83–84 ✓
Rider @ Houston +30.9 127.8 90% 45–91 ✓
Cal Poly @ Utah +6.3 151.7 77% 92–85 ✗
Mississippi State @ Kansas State +5.8 156.3 70% 77–98 ✓
Troy @ USC +16.8 161.0 87% 106–107 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ UNLV +15.8 152.8 86% 85–99 ✓
Arizona State @ Hawai'i +11.8 136.4 82% 83–76 ✗
Green Bay @ Yale +21.2 152.0 90% 67–73 ✓
Utah State @ Tulane -5.1 142.3 33% 96–75 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Alabama State +2.5 157.4 56% 80–101 ✓
Butler @ South Carolina -0.0 149.7 47% 79–72 ✓
Massachusetts @ Charleston -5.3 149.6 30% 65–69 ✗
Campbell @ UT Arlington +3.5 140.6 64% 71–67 ✗
Davidson @ Boston College -0.2 130.6 45% 59–49 ✓
Wisconsin @ BYU +6.2 150.4 73% 70–98 ✓
Northwestern @ Virginia -0.1 140.8 45% 78–83 ✗
Iona @ Akron +3.0 160.4 64% 75–96 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Florida State +20.4 162.7 87% 72–98 ✓
Lafayette @ Stonehill +9.4 141.5 78% 70–74 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Air Force -3.1 128.2 34% 63–77 ✗
Columbia @ Lehigh +2.4 132.5 58% 82–67 ✗
Louisville @ Cincinnati -0.6 149.2 33% 74–64 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Michigan State +27.0 145.2 90% 56–84 ✓
Oakland @ Eastern Michigan +8.1 144.3 80% 91–97 ✓
Charlotte @ App State +1.2 136.8 56% 63–65 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Rutgers +12.3 135.5 84% 67–54 ✗
West Virginia @ Clemson +2.8 126.7 62% 67–70 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.