Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | HAW -130 ASU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +7 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | HAW -11.6 (-18.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -6.8 (-13.8) | 137.5 (+21.5) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -11.0 (-18.0) | 136.2 (+22.8) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -11.8 (-18.8) | 136.4 (+22.6) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -10.9 (-17.9) | 140.4 (+18.6) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 78.3 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#85) | 0.8 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#83) | 0.16 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#68) | 0.54 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#131) | 0.443 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 38.8% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.2% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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