Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | YALE -2500 GB +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YALE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YALE +6 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | YALE -20.9 (-14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.8 (-23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -20.6 (-14.6) | 148.0 (-8.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -18.6 (-12.6) | 151.0 (-11.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -21.2 (-15.2) | 152.0 (-12.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -19.8 (-13.8) | 148.1 (-8.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YALE | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 9-3 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#17) | -6.3 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#55) | -1.62 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#40) | -2.64 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#39) | 0.428 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YALE | GB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.9% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 46.9% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.1% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 40.2% | 18.4% |
| FT Rate | 33.0% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 58.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 10.0% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
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