Betting Lines
| Spread | M-OH -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | M-OH -2500 MERC +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | M-OH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | M-OH +5 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | M-OH -11.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | M-OH -12.3 (-7.3) | 134.6 (+12.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | M-OH -11.0 (-6.0) | 136.1 (+10.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | M-OH -12.1 (-7.1) | 134.9 (+12.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | M-OH -13.4 (-8.4) | 134.8 (+12.2) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | M-OH | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-2 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 18-0 | 10-8 |
| Home | 16-0 | 12-3 |
| Away | 14-0 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.3 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#117) | -1.4 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#59) | 0.19 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#54) | 0.12 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#112) | 0.462 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | M-OH | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 27.2% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 83.3% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 46.2% |
Game Analysis
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