Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 171.5 Under |
| Money | MIZ -10000 SDAK +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +34 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -19.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -19.9 (+14.1) | 161.0 (+9.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -16.0 (+18.0) | 157.1 (+12.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -19.7 (+14.3) | 157.2 (+12.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -19.5 (+14.5) | 159.8 (+10.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 15-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.2 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 81.7 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#57) | -3.9 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#64) | -1.44 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#83) | -1.83 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#114) | 0.384 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 56.4% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 44.0% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 63.9% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 33.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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