Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | APP -125 CLT +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +2 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | APP -0.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -1.5 (+0.5) | 133.6 (-5.6) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -1.7 (+0.3) | 136.3 (-8.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -1.2 (+0.8) | 136.8 (-8.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -0.7 (+1.3) | 134.8 (-6.8) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2022 | CLT 71 – 62 APP |
| Nov 18, 2021 | CLT 67 – 66 APP |
| Dec 11, 2020 | APP 61 – 57 CLT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#240) | 1.6 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#210) | 1.03 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#255) | 2.34 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#257) | 0.613 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 15.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 43.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.0% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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